21/09/26, Shaleen Agrawal's Report on Market

 Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty are likely to open largely flat-to-negative on Monday, with GIFT Nifty pointing to a muted start even as gains across Asian markets and a sharp decline in crude oil prices provide a supportive global backdrop. Brent crude has fallen towards $101 a barrel and US equity futures are higher, although persistent geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East could keep investors cautious.

GIFT Nifty was trading at 23,340 around 7:55 am, down 21 points, or 0.1 percent. Indian benchmark indices ended mixed in the previous session. The Sensex slipped 20 points to 74,294.96, while the Nifty gained 75.80 points to 23,346.40 as weakness in IT and Tata Group stocks offset some of the support from falling crude prices.

Asian markets rise, US futures point higher

Asian equities edged higher on Monday, helped by gains in semiconductor stocks as demand related to artificial intelligence continued to support the technology sector. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.3 percent, while South Korea's tech-heavy Kospi advanced 1.1 percent.

Japanese cash equities were closed for a holiday, although Nikkei futures gained 0.5 percent. US equity futures were also positive, with S&P 500 futures gaining 0.3 percent and Nasdaq futures rising 0.4 percent.

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said gains in Asian markets provide a supportive regional backdrop for Indian equities, although developments in the Middle East and movements in energy prices are likely to remain important drivers of sentiment.

Brent slides towards $101, WTI drops below $100

Crude oil prices fell sharply on Monday, as investors focused on the prospect of a recovery in Saudi Arabian shipments despite continuing attacks by Yemen's Houthis and the ongoing stalemate between the US and Iran.

Brent crude dropped 2.4 percent to around $101.40 a barrel, putting it on course for its longest losing streak since June. The benchmark had already declined 0.91 percent on Friday. West Texas Intermediate fell 2.3 percent to $97.96 a barrel, after losing 1.58 percent in the previous session.

Ponmudi cautioned that geopolitical risks remain significant. Any fresh escalation between the US and Iran could quickly trigger renewed volatility in oil, currencies and global equities. Investors are also monitoring US tariff measures targeting major buyers of Russian oil.

Nasdaq, S&P 500 rise as chip stocks rally

Wall Street ended mixed on Friday as strength in semiconductor stocks lifted technology-heavy indices, while broader weakness weighed on the Dow. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.40 percent to 26,522.55, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.17 percent to 7,650.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.18 percent to 51,682.64.

Nifty technical outlook

Ponmudi sees 23,400 as the immediate hurdle for the Nifty, with a sustained move above that level potentially opening the way towards 23,500-23,600. On the downside, 23,200 is the immediate support, followed by the stronger 23,100-23,070 zone.

Foreign institutional investors turned net buyers in Indian equities on Friday after selling for seven consecutive sessions, purchasing shares worth Rs 599 crore. Domestic institutional investors also remained buyers, investing more than Rs 1,000 crore during the session.

Source: Network18 

21/09/26, Index Levels

S E N S E X

N I F T Y  B A N K

20/09/26, STOCKS TO WATCH THIS WEEK

The Sensex fell 0.65% this week, while the Nifty 50 declined 0.2%. Crude oil prices continued above $100 per barrel and the 10-year yield remained elevated. These continued to weigh on sentiment.

Is there still room for stocks to move higher despite the broader weakness?

Several brokerages have recently updated their views on individual companies. Bernstein, Jefferies, Nuvama Research, CLSA, HSBC, Motilal Oswal and Emkay have issued ‘Buy’ or equivalent positive ratings on stocks across banking, power, defence, infrastructure and consumer internet.

Here are 10 stocks where brokerage price targets indicate 25% to 62% upside.

Bernstein on HDFC Bank: 62% upside

Bernstein assigned ‘Outperform’ rating to HDFC Bank with a target price of Rs 1,150. This indicates around 62% upside from the current market price.

According to the brokerage report, HDFC Bank has submitted its chief executive officer (CEO) candidates to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) ahead of Jagdishan’s retirement. 

It has also sought a full three-year term for the incoming CEO. Bernstein believes the timing could reduce concerns around the succession process.

Nuvama on Inox Wind: 58.9% upside

Nuvama rated Inox Wind a ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 123, implying 58.9% upside.

The renewable energy pipeline remains a key part of the brokerage’s assessment. “Renewable tendering remains strong, with 142GW of capacity yet to be converted into PPAs,” for Inox Winds, Nuvama said.

Power purchase agreements (PPAs) are contracts under which electricity is sold to a buyer for an agreed period.

Jefferies on Adani Energy Solutions: 53% upside

Jefferies has ‘Buy’ on Adani Energy Solutions with a target price of Rs 2,060, implying 53% upside.

According to the brokerage report, transmission, smart meters and energy trading are the key areas to watch. Adani Energy’s transmission bid pipeline has also increased to Rs 1.1 lakh crore from Rs 90,000 crore a year earlier.

Bernstein on Swiggy: 52% upside

Bernstein retained ‘Outperform’ on Swiggy with a target price of Rs 430, indicating around 52% upside.

The brokerage expects Swiggy and its food-delivery peer Eternal to remain important players in the segment. 

Its assessment also factors in their existing consumer base and scale as competition increases.

Jefferies on Hitachi Energy India: 50% upside

Jefferies retained ‘Buy’ on Hitachi Energy India and set a target price of Rs 45,790, implying 50% upside.

According to the brokerage report, Hitachi Energy has an order book of around Rs 32,200 crore. It also secured two large domestic high-voltage direct current (HVDC) orders worth more than Rs 19,000 crore during FY25-26.

CLSA assigned an ‘Outperform’ rating to BEL with a target price of Rs 522, implying 35.3% upside.

Speaking on Bharat Electronics’ revenue prospects, “Rising electronics in defence equipment and its nomination for two multi-billion dollar projects are key catalysts,” CLSA said.

The brokerage also highlighted defence procurement following the India-Pakistan skirmishes.

Jefferies on Torrent Power: 37% upside

Jefferies has retainedi‘Buy’ on Torrent Power with a target price of Rs 1,780, implying 37% upside.

Torrent Power currently has around 2 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity and aims to reach 10 GW by 2030. 

“Renewable energy capacity to rise at least 3x by FY30,” the brokerage report said.

HSBC on Hindustan Aeronautics: 29.5% upside

HSBC has initiated coverage on HAL with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 6,350, indicating 29.5% upside.

“Large order book gives multi-year revenue and earnings visibility for HAL. We expect LCA Mk1 deliveries to pick up. Over the coming years, new platform deliveries should drive ROH revenues higher,” HSBC said.

Motilal Oswal on Indraprastha Gas: 27% upside

Motilal Oswal retained its ‘Buy’ rating on Indraprastha Gas with a target price of Rs 195, implying around 27% upside.

According to the brokerage report, recent price increases for compressed natural gas (CNG) and piped natural gas (PNG) could support margins for IGL. . 

However, electric vehicle adoption in Delhi remains a key factor to monitor.

Emkay on GMR Airports: 25% upside

Emkay has initiated coverage on GMR Airports with a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 120, implying around 25% upside.

The brokerage is focusing on the company’s non-aeronautical businesses, including duty-free, cargo, parking and retail. “The GAL platform provides GMR with a dedicated vehicle to scale and monetize non-aero opportunities across its airport network,” Emkay said.

What investors need to watch

Taken together, these 10 brokerage calls cover a wide range of sectors. The projected upside ranges from 25% to 62%, based on the respective brokerage targets. 

Written by Olivia Kunjumon 

Source: FinancialExpress

20/09/26, Jyoti CNC Automation

Jyoti CNC Automation manufactures CNC metal-cutting machines. Jyoti CNC has installed over 140,000 CNC machines in 60+ countries worldwide. The company offers over 200 variants across 44 product verticals, ranging from entry-level turning and milling centers to high-end multi-axis and 5-axis machines.

Jyoti CNC serves diverse sectors. In Q1FY27, the aerospace and defense sector accounted for 37% of revenue, followed by auto and auto components (35%), general engineering (17%), electronic manufacturing services (6%), dies and molds (4%), and others (1%).

Order Book at ₹4,848 Cr: Aerospace Takes the Lead

As of 30 June, 2026, Jyoti CNC holds a total order book of ₹4,848 crore. Aerospace & defence (38%), general engineering (20%), auto & auto components (19%), and EMS (13%) lead the order book. Management expects full-year order intake to reach ₹2,500 crore to ₹3,000 crore. Of this, the company won ₹601 crore worth of orders in Q1FY27.

Jyoti CNC currently operates a base annual installed capacity of 6,000 CNC machines. In Q1 FY27, the plant operated at 86% capacity utilization. The company produced 5,550 machines in FY26 and expects to exceed 8,000+ machines in FY27. It is expanding capacity by 10,000 CNC machines, bringing total domestic annual capacity to 16,000 machines.

16,000-Machine Capacity Leap Powers Global Deals

The company targets full commissioning of this plant by the end of October 2026. Supported by the new capacity, total volume is projected to cross 8,000+ machines in FY27. The added capacity is the key reason behind FY27 guidance of 25-30% revenue growth. For aerospace components, Jyoti makes multi-axis machines, including

GU 8: A 5-axis gantry-type machining center specifically developed for complex structural aerospace parts and tooling.

Tachyon Beta: A compact, simultaneous 5-axis machine driven by linear motors for high-speed precision manufacturing.

ATM 200: An inverted turning center catered to precision aerospace engineering.

Demand is driven by facility upgrades by Indian component suppliers. They are upgrading their facilities with Jyoti to manufacture parts for defense and commercial aerospace programs, including Airbus, Dassault, and Hindustan Aeronautics. Jyoti delivers advanced 5-axis centers to defense and aerospace clients across Europe, China, and Turkey.

Another demand driver is the mandate for promoting domestic defence manufacturing. This, coupled with import substitution, is accelerating demand for local CNC machine tools. Shifting manufacturing bases to India by global defence and aerospace players is also a tailwind for Jyoti CNC Business.

👉Huron Accounting Shift Masks 24% Topline Surge

Financially, the company’s revenue grew 24% year-on-year to ₹508.5 crore in Q1FY27, driven by 25.9% volume growth to 1,406 units and average realisation of ₹34.6 lakh. EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, and Amortisation) surged 8.6% to ₹108.8 crore, with margins at 21.4%. Net profit fell 20% to ₹57.1 crore.

Profitability and margin fell due to a change in revenue recognition accounting methodology at the French subsidiary “Huron”. It moved away from the percentage-of-completion method and began booking revenue upon machine dispatch and receipt of end-user export certification. As a result, Huron deferred ₹35 crore in unbilled revenue and ₹20-22 crore in EBITDA.

France is investigating Huron for alleged export violations. This is a key risk to keep track of.

Written by Madhavendra 

Source: Financial Express

18/09/26, Speaking on the sidelines of Moneycontrol's Mutual Fund Summit - Delhi edition 2026

Indian economy can withstand crude oil prices of $120 a barrel, but the stock market may still react negatively, said Anish Tawakley, CIO, DSP Mutual Fund, drawing a distinction between the economy's ability to absorb higher oil prices and the impact on equities.

Speaking on the sidelines of Moneycontrol's Mutual Fund Summit - Delhi edition 2026, during the session ‘Inevitable India, Uncertain World', Tawakley, Deepak Shenoy, CEO, Capitalmind Mutual Fund, and Sachee Trivedi, Founder & CIO, Trident Capital Investments, discussed the impact of higher crude prices on India, the ability of the economy to absorb the shock and what it could mean for equity markets

India's forex reserves enough to cushion higher oil impact

Tawakley said India's ability to deal with higher crude prices is very different from what it was in the 1990s because the country now has significant foreign exchange reserves. “India needs five million barrels of oil a day and can use the forex reserves to keep buying,” he said.

He contrasted this with countries that do not have adequate reserves to pay for their oil imports. “Countries which don't have reserves are the ones which will suffer because they will have to ration fuel. In the 1990s, we had to cut our oil consumption because we didn't have the reserves. If you maintain the oil consumption that we have today, your output doesn't have to fall dramatically,” he said.

Tawakley also pointed out on how India's current economic position gives it more room to absorb the impact of higher crude prices. “The economy is in good shape, the economy can withstand $120 of oil. Demand is growing and there is still spare capacity, normally you get a good run of earnings. I am not pessimistic on earnings over the next two years. Returns should be reasonable,” he added.

Economy can handle oil, but markets may still take a hit

Shenoy of Capitalmind Mutual Fund agreed that India's economy has the ability to absorb higher crude prices, but said investors should not assume that equities will remain insulated. “The economy can handle oil, but the markets may still have a negative impact,” he said.

Shenoy said the short-term direction of crude is particularly difficult to predict because geopolitical developments can cause sharp moves. “Oil short term cannot be predicted. It could go to $140, it could go to $160,” he said. At the same time, he said there are forces that could eventually bring additional supply into the market. "Oil has structural downside in pricing but cyclical upside due to geopolitics."

He pointed to the possibility of sanctioned oil returning to the market because of political incentives and the supply response that can emerge when crude prices remain high. “If oil prices go higher, US shale gets more profitable at higher prices,” he said.

His longer-term view on crude was more benign despite the possibility of a sharp near-term spike. “I think oil can return to $80 in six months,” he said.

Magnitude of oil price increase is important

Trivedi said the impact of higher crude cannot be judged simply by looking at the absolute price. The starting point and the magnitude of the increase are equally important. “If oil goes from $65 to $100, that's a 50 percent increase and that's very hard to absorb,” she said. But she said the situation is different when crude is already at elevated levels. “If oil goes from $108 to $120, that's 10-12 percent. That's something which is anticipated and something that people are mentally prepared for,” Trivedi said.

She also brought Europe into the discussion, saying the region could face significant pressure from elevated energy costs. “Europe is also feeling the pain and they may compensate households. Winter may be difficult,” she said.

Trivedi said the impact of oil should also be viewed through the direction of earnings revisions. “The second derivative is improving,” she said, referring to the trend in earnings. “The upgrades and downgrades ratio has changed,” she added. This could mean that some of the negative news has already been reflected in market expectations. That's the reason she believes that a sharp downside risk is capped and the upside has turned flat for markets.

Source: Network18 

18/09/26, INDEX LEVELS

 

17/09/26, Sunil Sankar's Report on Trading Strategy

The Nifty 50 is most likely to see consolidation with a negative bias, especially after the US Federal Reserve expectedly raised interest rates by 25 bps and signalled one more hike this year. The index may attempt to defend the previous day's low of 23,100 amid bearish technical indicators, oil prices holding around the $100-a-barrel mark and US bond yields hovering around the 5 percent level. If the index decisively breaks the 23,100–23,070 zone, a fall below 23,000 cannot be ruled out. However, if it holds above this zone, the 23,400–23,500 levels could be the next targets. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty needs to defend the 55,800–55,700 zone for a possible upmove towards the 56,700–57,000 zone. A break below this support, however, could trigger panic selling, experts said.

On September 16, the Nifty 50 bounced back 99 points, or 0.43 percent, to 23,218, while the Bank Nifty rallied 498 points, or 0.89 percent, to 56,292. However, market breadth remained in favour of the bears, with about 1,756 shares declining against 1,476 advancing shares on the National Stock Exchange.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

On Tuesday, the benchmark index Nifty failed to surpass its 10-day EMA, triggering a sharp correction thereafter. However, ahead of the crucial Fed interest rate decision, the index traded in a narrow 168-point range on Wednesday and formed an indecisive candle on the daily chart.

The broader trend remains bearish, as the index continues to trade below both its short- and long-term moving averages, which are themselves sloping downward. Momentum indicators also suggest weakness, with the daily RSI remaining in the bearish zone and trading below its 9-day average. Additionally, the daily MACD maintains a negative bias, trading below both the zero line and its signal line. Notably, the MACD histogram has remained in negative territory for the past 23 trading sessions, indicating persistent downside momentum.

Going forward, the 23,050–23,000 zone is expected to act as a key support area, coinciding with the previous swing low. A decisive breach below the 23,000 mark could accelerate selling pressure and drag the index towards 22,700. On the upside, the 23,350–23,400 zone is likely to remain a strong hurdle, and the index would need to sustain above this zone to signal any meaningful recovery.

Key Resistance: 23,350, 23,400

Key Support: 23,050, 23,000, 22,700

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures above 23,375, with a stop-loss of 23,190 and a target of 23,650.

Vaishali Patel, Senior Manager - Research- Technical Department at Jainam

Nifty witnessed a recovery in Wednesday's session and reclaimed the 23,200 mark after the sharp decline witnessed in the previous session. However, the broader technical structure remains weak, as the index continues to trade below key moving averages and the earlier support breakdown remains intact. The immediate resistance is placed around 23,300–23,400, followed by the crucial 23,600 zone. A sustained move above 23,400 could trigger a short-term pullback towards 23,600, while failure to hold 23,200 may bring selling pressure back.

On the downside, 23,000 is the immediate support, followed by the next major support near 22,700.

Daily oversold momentum indicators and hourly divergences may support intermittent rebounds, along with the broader indices trading near important support levels. However, the recovery is likely to remain vulnerable unless the index decisively reclaims 23,600.

Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautious to negative, with traders likely to maintain a sell-on-rise approach until a clear trend reversal emerges.

Key Resistance: 23,500, 23,600

Key Support: 23,050, 22,700

Strategy: Sell Nifty Futures around 23,400–23,450, with a stop-loss of 23,650 and a target of 23,100.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

For the last three trading sessions, the banking benchmark index, Bank Nifty, has been consolidating around the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level of its previous upward move from 52,783 to 58,706. However, the overall undertone remains weak, as the index continues to trade below its short- and long-term moving averages. Moreover, the 20-day and 50-day EMAs are trending lower, indicating a bearish bias. Momentum indicators also reflect caution, with the daily RSI hovering near the 40 mark, suggesting subdued buying strength.

Going forward, the 55,700–55,600 zone is likely to serve as an important support area for the index. A sustained breach below 55,600 could intensify selling pressure and open the door for further downside towards 55,000, followed by 54,500 in the near term. On the upside, the 56,700–56,800 zone is expected to act as a significant resistance band, and the index would need to surpass this hurdle to improve the short-term technical outlook.

Key Resistance: 56,700, 56,800

Key Support: 55,700, 55,600, 55,000

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures above 56,600, with a stop-loss of 56,150 and a target of 57,300.

Vaishali Patel, Senior Manager - Research- Technical Department at Jainam

Bank Nifty remains under pressure after forming a sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the beginning of September, indicating a weak short-term trend. The immediate support is placed around 55,550–55,700, followed by 55,000. On the upside, 57,000–57,350, where the 50-day DMA and 200-day DMA are placed, is likely to act as an immediate resistance zone, while 57,000 remains a crucial hurdle. A decisive break below 55,550 could extend the decline towards 55,000 and lower levels.

Overall, the outlook remains negative to cautious, with a sell-on-rise approach likely to dominate unless Bank Nifty decisively reclaims the 56,500–57,000 zone.

Key Resistance: 56,650, 57,000

Key Support: 55,700, 55,500

Strategy: Sell Bank Nifty Futures around 56,800–57,100, with a stop-loss of 57,500 and a target of 55,700.

Source: Network18 

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts here are their own and not those of us. We advise readers and traders to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

17/09/26, INDEX LEVELS

17/09/26, US Federal Reserve

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, delivering its first hike since July 2023 as stubborn inflation, higher energy prices and a resilient economy prompted policymakers to resume monetary tightening after more than three years.

The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously raised the federal funds rate target range to 3.75-4 percent, reversing part of the easing delivered since the Fed ended its previous rate-hike cycle. More importantly, policymakers signalled that Wednesday's move may not be a one-off, with most officials expecting rates to rise further this year.

So, what prompted the Fed to start raising interest rates again after more than three years?

Inflation remains the US Fed's biggest concern

Persistent inflation has become the central concern for policymakers. Overall US inflation stood at 3.7 percent year-on-year in July, while core inflation was 3.3 percent, both remaining above the Fed's 2 percent objective. More recently, the Consumer Price Index for August rose 0.4 percent from the previous month, taking the annual inflation rate to 3.4 percent.

Higher energy prices have complicated the inflation outlook. The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global energy markets and pushed crude oil above $100 a barrel, increasing concerns that price pressures could become more persistent and spread beyond energy.

The Fed also made a notable change to its assessment of inflation. Its latest statement dropped an earlier reference attributing elevated inflation to "supply shocks", particularly in the energy sector. The change comes as policymakers have grown more concerned that inflationary pressures are becoming broader.

At the same time, the US economy has remained resilient enough to give the Fed room to tighten monetary policy. Policymakers project economic growth of 2.3 percent in 2026 and 2.4 percent in 2027, while the unemployment rate is seen at 4.1 percent.

Together, persistent inflation and continued economic resilience have shifted the balance towards higher interest rates, despite the Fed having spent the previous phase of its policy cycle lowering borrowing costs.

First Fed rate hike of Kevin Warsh era

Wednesday's decision assumes added significance because it is the first interest-rate change since Kevin Warsh became Fed chair in late May.

President Donald Trump selected Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve after repeatedly calling for lower interest rates and had said during the selection process that he expected his appointee to favour lower borrowing costs.

The Fed's latest decision instead moves monetary policy in the opposite direction, with the central bank raising rates and its projections leaving the door open to further tightening.

Warsh had already hardened his rhetoric on inflation before the September meeting. At the Jackson Hole symposium last month, he said policymakers needed confidence that underlying inflation was moving towards the Fed's objective "clearly and at sufficient speed".

Wednesday's unanimous decision also comes after three policymakers had favoured raising rates at the Fed's July meeting.

The latest move effectively reverses part of the easing delivered by the central bank after its previous tightening cycle. The Fed had last raised rates in July 2023 and subsequently cut borrowing costs six times by a cumulative 175 basis points.

written by Shaleen Agrawal 

Source: Network18 

16/09/26, INDEX LEVELS

16/09/26, Trade Setup

Bears are showing no signs of relinquishing control, dragging the Nifty 50 down 1.2 percent despite a gap-up opening on September 15. Technical indicators remain firmly in favour of the bears, while market sentiment has been dampened by elevated US bond yields and crude oil prices, along with caution ahead of the FOMC meeting outcome. The Nifty 50 is expected to consolidate with a negative bias. A break below the crucial support level of 23,000 could strengthen bearish momentum and trigger panic selling. On the upside, the 23,400–23,500 zone is likely to act as a key hurdle, according to experts, who continue to recommend a sell-on-rallies strategy.

Levels for the Nifty50: (cmp23118.60):

Resistance based on pivot points: 23,458, 23,570, and 23,751

Support based on pivot points: 23,096, 22,984, and 22,802

The Nifty 50 formed a long bearish candle on the daily charts, continuing its lower high–lower low structure and reflecting the bears' control. All key moving averages continued to trend downward, while the index fell below the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from 22,183 to 24,774. The RSI slipped further to 22.23, its lowest level since March 2025, while the MACD extended its decline, with the red histogram bar expanding for the sixth consecutive session. All these indicators point to continued bearish momentum.

Levels For The BankNifty (55,795)

Resistance based on pivot points: 56,654, 56,938, and 57,397

Support based on pivot points: 55,736, 55,453, and 54,994

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 57,285, 59,261

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 55,749, 55,050

The Bank Nifty fell 1.43 percent and formed a sizeable red candle on the daily timeframe, signalling the strong presence of bears. The index traded below all key moving averages, with short- and medium-term moving averages trending downward. However, it managed to defend the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from the May low to the June high. The RSI slipped below the 40 level to 33.23, while the MACD maintained its downtrend below the zero line, with the red histogram bar deepening. All these indicators point to bearish phase.

Nifty Call Options Data:

According to the weekly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 23,400 strike (with 62.71 lakh contracts). This level can act as a key resistance level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 23,500 strike (58.47 lakh contracts) and 23,600 strike (38.21 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 23,400 strike, which saw an addition of 42.02 lakh contracts, followed by the 23,200 and 23,500 strikes, which added 32.32 lakh and 30.7 lakh contracts, respectively. There was hardly any Call unwinding seen in the 22,750-23,700 strike band.

Nifty Put  Options Data:

On the Put side, the 23,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 47.47 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 23,200 strike (45.52 lakh contracts) and the 22,800 strike (30.49 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 23,200 strike, which saw an addition of 28.72 lakh contracts, followed by the 23,000 and 22,800 strikes, which added 19.15 lakh and 15.3 lakh contracts, respectively. There was hardly any Put unwinding seen in the 22,750-23,700 strike band.

Bank Nifty Call options data:

According to the monthly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 57,500 strike, with 21.93 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 57,000 strike (11.42 lakh contracts) and the 56,500 strike (6.67 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 57,000 strike (with the addition of 3.02 lakh contracts), followed by the 56,000 strike (2.74 lakh contracts) and 56,500 strike (2.68 lakh contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 57,300 strike, which shed 13,380 contracts, followed by the 55,000 strike, which shed 1,080 contracts.

Bank Nifty put options data:

On the Put side, the 57,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 15.93 lakh contracts), which can act as a key level for the index in the short term. This was followed by the 56,000 strike (8.04 lakh contracts) and the 57,000 strike (7.98 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 55,000 strike (which added 15,180 contracts), followed by the 55,300 strike (12,510 contracts) and 55,600 strike (11,610 contracts). The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 57,500 strike, which shed 77,790 contracts, followed by the 56,000 and 57,000 strikes which shed 63,960 and 62,790 contracts, respectively.

Report by Sunil Sankar Matkar 

Source: Network18 

15/09/26, Market expecting positive start

Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty are likely to open with cautious gains on Tuesday after the long weekend, with GIFT Nifty pointing to a positive start. However, Brent crude prices above $106 a barrel, continuing Middle East tensions and caution ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision temper the global backdrop. Indian markets were closed on Monday for a holiday and will be absorbing two days of global developments when trading resumes.

GIFT Nifty was trading at 23,521 around 8 am, up 77 points, or 0.33 percent, from Monday's close. It was about 66 points, or 0.28 percent, above its Friday close. Indian equities had recovered sharply from their intraday lows in the previous trading session on Friday, September 11, but still ended marginally lower. The Sensex fell 120.83 points, or 0.16 percent, to 74,781.76, while the Nifty declined 79.70 points, or 0.34 percent, to 23,398.10, amid selling in metal, realty and PSU bank stocks.

Nifty Technical Outlook:

Ponmudi expects the Nifty to retain a weak undertone, with 23,500-23,600 acting as immediate resistance and 23,300-23,200 as the crucial support zone. A sustained move above 23,600 could open a recovery towards 23,800-24,000, while a break below 23,200 could expose the index to 23,000.

Foreign institutional investors remained net sellers for a fourth consecutive session in the previous domestic trading session, offloading equities worth Rs 930 crore on September 11. Domestic institutional investors continued to provide a counterweight, purchasing equities worth Rs 1,968 crore

Asian markets cautious ahead of US Fed decision

Asian markets were struggling for direction ahead of central bank decisions in the US and Japan. The stocks were subdued on Tuesday as investors weighed geopolitical risks, high crude oil prices and concerns around the artificial-intelligence trade.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.12 percent, with South Korea's Kospi down 0.25 percent. Japan's Nikkei reversed early losses to trade 0.19 percent higher, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.4 percent and the Shanghai Composite declined 0.3 percent.

Attention is firmly on the US Federal Reserve, whose two-day policy meeting begins later on Tuesday. Reuters reported that the markets are pricing in around a 90 percent probability of a rate increase, which would be the Fed's first hike since mid-2023.

Brent above $106 as Middle East supply risks persist

Crude oil remains a major concern for Indian markets, with prices rising again on Tuesday amid fresh threats to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure. Brent crude climbed 1.21 percent to $106.96 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 1.27 percent to $102.68. Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis launched another attack on Saudi Arabia on Monday, while Riyadh blamed Iran-backed fighters in Iraq for an attack on the kingdom's east-west pipeline that it said could disrupt as much as 4 percent of global oil supply. Gulf Arab states also postponed planned talks with Iran.

Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said the macroeconomic pressure from higher oil prices amid an uncertain geopolitical backdrop is likely to keep investor sentiment guarded at higher levels.

Wall Street falls; US 10-year yield briefly crosses 5%

US equities ended lower on Monday, and US Treasury yields remained elevated. Technology stocks were under pressure as investors also prepared for this week's Federal Reserve decision. The S&P 500 declined 0.48 percent to 7,619.94, while the Nasdaq fell 0.56 percent to 26,186.41 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.29 percent to 52,421.17.

Nvidia and other chipmakers came under pressure after senior executives at US artificial-intelligence companies raised safety concerns and called for a slowdown in AI development.

Written by Shaleen Agrawal

Source: Network18 

15/09/26, Bloomberg Report on BitCoin

 A rally in crypto markets has stalled as optimism wanes that a key US regulatory bill will progress this week.

The odds of the Clarity Act passing this year, which had jumped above 30% on Polymarket during the US trading session, fell back to 18% early Tuesday in Asia. That saw Bitcoin — which accounts for around 60% of the market value of all cryptocurrencies — retreat from as high as $79,586 to below $78,000 as of 8:40 a.m. in Singapore.

US Senator Mark Warner told reporters at the US Capitol that a group of Democratic negotiators would send a counteroffer to Republicans ahead of tomorrow's pivotal procedural vote on the Clarity Act, the comprehensive crypto regulation bill that has been stuck in partisan wrangling for a year. The bill will need a number of Democrats to cross party lines to advance and move later to final passage thanks to the Senate's 60-vote rule for most legislation.

“Odds of a 2026 signing sat above 70% in May, collapsed to the low teens through August and rebounded toward 30% on Monday. That is a market with no stable read,” said Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets, citing prediction-market odds. Still, “a counteroffer is consistent with a negotiation that is still live, not one that has broken down,” she said.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters earlier Monday that progress had been made in recent days, but he didn't know if the votes would be there to advance the bill Tuesday.

The biggest sticking point has been ethics provisions that Democrats have seen as inadequate to prevent President Donald Trump from continuing to profit from crypto after he reported $1.4 billion in income last year. But other issues, including concerns from banks that crypto stablecoins could siphon their deposits, have also been the subject of massive lobbying efforts.

Republican senators released a final draft of the bill, with changes addressing some of its most contentious points.

The new version would give the Treasury secretary power to intervene if deposit flight became “detrimental” to community banks. It also added new ethics guardrails for the president and other elected officials holding cryptocurrencies. The new ethics rules would force the president to divest from virtual assets or place significant holdings in a blind trust, or else face financial penalties. It also empowered state attorneys general to play a role in enforcing the ethics rules.

Shares of crypto-related companies rallied Monday, with digital exchange Coinbase Global Inc. jumping 9.2% and stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group Inc. increasing 7.5%.

Still, for some industry observers, the Federal Reserve's rate-setting meeting may turn out to be the most market-moving event for the digital-asset market this week.

“Markets now price roughly an 86% to 87% chance of a 25 basis point Fed hike on Wednesday, and Bitcoin appears to have absorbed much of that base case by holding in the mid-to-high $70,000s rather than breaking its August structure,” said Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet. “The larger repricing risk would come from a hawkish surprise in the statement.”

15/09/26, National Stock Exchange I P O

 Brokerages are positive on the upcoming public issue for the National Stock Exchange (NSE), as a result of its strong market position, profitability, and the overall long-term growth potential of India's capital markets.

SAMCO Securities has recommended subscribing to the NSE's issue for the long term, saying that the exchange is one of the strongest market infrastructure businesses in India. In FY26, the exchange had a 92.99 percent market share in cash equities, 99.79 percent in equity futures and 74.71 percent in equity options.

According to brokerages, the NSE's advantages include scale, liquidity, technology infrastructure, an integrated clearing ecosystem and a large investor base. SBI Securities described NSE as the “best franchise among peers”.

Further, at the upper price band of Rs 1,785, the exchange is valued at 42.9 times FY2026 earnings. This is under its listed peer, Asia's oldest exchange BSE's current valuation of 49.3x.

NSE reported revenue from operations of Rs 16,601 crore and PAT of Rs 10,302 crore in FY26, with an operating EBITDA margin of 66.9 percent and ROE of 33 percent.

The exchange also saw a pick-up in operating momentum in the first quarter of FY2027. Revenue rose 13.1 percent year-on-year, operating EBITDA increased 14.84 percent, while cash-market average daily traded value grew 25.25 percent.

SBI Securities also noted that NSE's revenue and PAT grew at a CAGR of 6 percent and 11 percent, respectively, between FY2024 and FY2026. Its technology and data businesses contributed 12 percent of FY2026 revenue, providing some diversification beyond trading.

Brokerages also see potential in NSE's wider ecosystem, including NSE Clearing, NSE Indices, market data and analytics and its GIFT City initiatives. Ventura Securities also highlighted NSE's technology capabilities, with the platform processing 21.9 billion peak order messages in a single day and 201 million trades on March 24, 2026.

The biggest concern flagged by brokerages is NSE's dependence on derivatives, particularly options. Options accounted for 60 percent of FY26 revenue from operations, while NSE's equity-options market share fell from 96.86 percent in FY24 to 68.48 percent in Q1 FY27, said brokerages.

SAMCO cautioned that further regulatory intervention or higher transaction taxes could weigh on speculative derivatives volumes. Ventura also flagged government dependency and execution risks. However, the brokerage did mention that NSE continues to generate strong returns despite a decline in FY26 revenue and profitability.

Overall, brokerages believe NSE's dominant franchise and exposure to the expansion of India's capital markets provides investors with a long-term opportunity. Importantly, at the same time, maintaining market share and reducing dependence on options revenue will remain some key monitorables for investors.

Written by Zoya Springwala 

Source: Network18 

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts here are their own and not those of us.  We advises readers and traders to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.